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Will any country leave NATO?
$414.2K volume
Yes
4.7¢
4.7% chance
No
95.3¢
95.3% chance
Price History
Order Book
PriceSize
0.62¢3,368
0.60¢2,076
0.58¢3,089
0.56¢2,144
0.54¢1,817
0.52¢4,998
PriceSize
0.64¢1,965
0.66¢2,239
0.68¢5,289
0.70¢2,113
0.72¢2,758
0.74¢1,958
About This Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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